Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Those rail fare hikes

    As the unfortunate spectacle of 2013 railway budget draws to a conclusion ,this is what was proposed that caused such outrage.
The Railway Budget had announced a fare rise of two paise per km for suburban and ordinary second class travel. Mail and express second-class fare was proposed to be raised by three paise per km; for sleeper class by five paise per km; for A/C chair car and A/C 3-tier and first class by 10 paise per km; for A/C 2-tier by 15 paise per km and for A/C I by 30 paise per km.
...
The Budget proposals said they hoped to garner Rs 6,500 crore from the fare rise.
    Passenger rail fares were being raised after nine long years. Here is what has happened to crude oil prices in the last nine years.

Source: Indexmundi

    And, here is the price of rice, another commodity all Indians use on a daily basis.


Source: Indexmundi
Update : Price of rice per Metric ton

    In the face of rising costs, increasing fares was a rational choice. If we want to support our ambitions of building a High speed rail network, better freight lines and modern train stations, this streak of mindless populism has to end.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

In the long run ..

    State assembly elections in recent years have established a consistent pattern. Governments widely perceived to be corrupt and under-performing economically have been voted out. Incumbents in states with  brisk development have been rewarded with renewed mandates. Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh can be placed in the first category, Bihar and Punjab in the second. There was a time when Indian voters were regarded vehemently anti-incumbent.

    Above all, elections in most states have been relatively peaceful with no credible evidence of large scale wrongdoing. Despite complaints of apathy among urban voters, people seem to be engaged and willing to vote their objective mind. In the long run, that is a great thing.

Goodbye to all that

    The 2012 assembly election results make one look back at the aftermath of 2009 Loksabha elections. There was widespread euphoria among people who were frustrated with policy gridlock under UPA-1. The stock market surged 17% in response to UPA's reelection. That was then.
    
    A little less than 3 years into it's second stint and with the latest election setbacks, any hope of robust policy reform is lost. Emboldened allies and opposition parties are bound to make life very hard for the government. Some are already hankering for mid-term elections.

    Unless policymakers are willing to take politically difficult decisions, reforms will stay in the backburner for the foreseeable future. States that care for higher growth will have to enact ad-hoc measures , the kind of policy "jugaad" that would impose inefficiencies and onerous costs on businesses. Sadly, there are no better prospects in the horizon.