Every once in a while, a long bullied kid springs a stinging surprise on her perpetrators. UPA-2, after suffering serial humiliations at the hand of allies and opposition alike, responded with the single biggest set of reforms since 1991.The Banyan blog over at the economist has an excellent analysis:
If they pull the plug on UPA-2 in the coming months, elections will be held in early 2013. Forecasters of parliamentary elections have gotten their predictions badly wrong in the last two cycles. In the aftermath of mid term elections with unpredictable results, it is improbable that both these parties will enjoy the same leverage and influence they currently command.
As for BJP, they are engaged in a fratricidal battle between Naresh Modi and Nitish Kumar for the leadership of NDA in the next elections.And they have their own baggage. After the debacle of 2009 for their obdurate opposition to the nuclear deal, they have to be wary of going to polls in the aftermath of brazen opposition to reforms they supported in the past. Are they willing to risk the prospect of being in opposition till 2018 after the polls, if they are held in 2013?
The states run by Congress, Mr Singh’s party, will presumably toe the government line. Others may prefer to wait and watch, but the chances are that all states will eventually agree. ...
The fact that parliament has just finished the monsoon session, and will not sit again for a couple of months, allows everyone to avoid a no-confidence motion. ...
The position of the opposition, the BJP, is now delicate. It forced the boycott, in effect, of parliament throughout most of the monsoon session. It may think of trying to block the government reforms now (despite its own history of being in favour of a more market-oriented approach to the economy) for the sake of pushing the idea of “policy paralysis” in government. But it must also take care, both not to damage India’s main interest—getting the economy revving again—and for not getting the blame itself if the economy does badly.From the Prime minister and UPA's point of view this looks like a great gamble. Without a display of some spine they would have been bullied by everyone all the way till the next elections in 2014. Mulayam Singh Yadav's SP and Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool are two parties that could potentially bring down the government. If you look a little deeper, their positions are somewhat shaky. Both UP and West Bengal need a lot of help from the centre to make economic progress. That would include higher funding allocations from the planning commission and assistance with handling state deficits.
If they pull the plug on UPA-2 in the coming months, elections will be held in early 2013. Forecasters of parliamentary elections have gotten their predictions badly wrong in the last two cycles. In the aftermath of mid term elections with unpredictable results, it is improbable that both these parties will enjoy the same leverage and influence they currently command.
As for BJP, they are engaged in a fratricidal battle between Naresh Modi and Nitish Kumar for the leadership of NDA in the next elections.And they have their own baggage. After the debacle of 2009 for their obdurate opposition to the nuclear deal, they have to be wary of going to polls in the aftermath of brazen opposition to reforms they supported in the past. Are they willing to risk the prospect of being in opposition till 2018 after the polls, if they are held in 2013?
