Total fertility rate(TFR) is the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime. When the TFR reaches 2.1 , it is called the replacement level of fertility. This is the level at which the population stabilizes.
Generally,poor countries start out with a high total fertility rate(TFR). As they grow richer the TFR stabilizes. In turn , the population also stabilizes. One of the common refrains you hear about India is that the population of the country is too high. No doubt, the total population of the country is very large.What about the growth rate? One of the primary drivers of population growth is TFR. Here is the trend line:
It is a little hard to get the exact number from the graph, India's TFR is around 2.6 now. The number has seen a steady decline over the last 20 years. According to an estimate,India's TFR would reach 2.1 around the year 2025. In the past 20 years , the rate of GDP growth has been steady and rising. This should translate to a rapidly decreasing TFR. Here is a snapshot of some of the states:
The choice of states in this graphic is deliberate. Bihar,Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh commonly known as BIMARU states have seen sluggish growth in GDP and socio-economic development for the most part of the last two decades. Then there are the relatively progressive states of Gujarat,Maharashtra,Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. The TFR's for these two groups of states are in two seperate leagues. Here is the same data in numbers:
As you can see, compared to the BIMARU states, the states with greater GDP growths in the last two decades have seen a larger decline in TFR. The BIMARU's together make up more than a third of the country's population. Although some of these states have shown some promise lately, they still have a long way to go. Until then , these states will be a drag on every indicator of overall progress for the country. It is about time policy makers put more effort into improving the lot of these states.
Generally,poor countries start out with a high total fertility rate(TFR). As they grow richer the TFR stabilizes. In turn , the population also stabilizes. One of the common refrains you hear about India is that the population of the country is too high. No doubt, the total population of the country is very large.What about the growth rate? One of the primary drivers of population growth is TFR. Here is the trend line:
It is a little hard to get the exact number from the graph, India's TFR is around 2.6 now. The number has seen a steady decline over the last 20 years. According to an estimate,India's TFR would reach 2.1 around the year 2025. In the past 20 years , the rate of GDP growth has been steady and rising. This should translate to a rapidly decreasing TFR. Here is a snapshot of some of the states:
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| TFR rates for select states |
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| TFR decline in numbers for states |
As you can see, compared to the BIMARU states, the states with greater GDP growths in the last two decades have seen a larger decline in TFR. The BIMARU's together make up more than a third of the country's population. Although some of these states have shown some promise lately, they still have a long way to go. Until then , these states will be a drag on every indicator of overall progress for the country. It is about time policy makers put more effort into improving the lot of these states.
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