UPA 2 - Too busy to govern

    Throughout the kerfuffle between Anna Hazare led India against corruption(IAC) and the government , there is one element of UPA's second stint that has not received deserved scrutiny. It is the slowdown of the economy and a loss of momentum in enacting badly needed reforms.

    Even as late as a few months ago there was a possibility of forward movement, with several bills waiting to be tabled.  Demands for a Joint parliamentary committee(JPC) to probe the 2G scam consumed most of the budget session between February and May. The current session has so far been spent dealing with the Anna Hazare fast.

    After extracting concessions from the government on Lokpal,  IAC seems to be signaling more such fights to come. To be sure, they have plenty of items on the agenda. There are far too many institutions of  government desperately in need of reform.

    The UPA could get ahead of this by coming out with a roadmap of reforms not just to tackle graft but also to accelerate growth. They could set out a time table for the passage of various bills and start moving ahead with them. If no significant progress is made in the three years before the next scheduled elections, UPA's second term could very well be remembered for it's political knife fights with the civil society and little else.

Corruption - The democracy rebound

    Emerging from posting exile. Was busy with the move. Then was without internet for two weeks, courtesy the Verizon strike.

    The politically out of favour big-wigs are now caught up in their respective run-ins with law enforcement authorities. See here, here and here to get the context. Reasonable citizens are right to question the timing of these investigations. For politicians, all these cases make it very clear that being out of power is not only bad for your career, it could also land you in all kinds of legal trouble. That is unless if your integrity is beyond question. These days in India, finding a politician whose integrity is beyond reasonable doubt is as rare as the Indian cricket team winning a test series in England or Australia.

    2011 is proving to be the start of a new era. I cannot remember the last time these many national politicians and bureaucrats were under investigation or sent to prison. Some would say , corruption has never been more rampant. But there is a brighter side . Legal action being pursued against all these worthies shows that people's voices are being heard. And that is no small achievement for a young democracy such as India's.

    For the past several decades, people who came to power in all levels of government would start engaging in corrupt practices immediately. The tacit understanding was that everybody did the same and there were no adverse consequences. Help yourself to as much as possible for as long as you were in power.And expect to go unpunished when you are out of office. The numerous investigations this year show that this may slowly be changing. That is the kind of rebound only a democracy with a semblance of accountability can produce.

    There is an awful lot that needs to be done to strengthen institutions of justice in the country. People will truly believe things have changed when guilty verdicts and convictions start getting handed to those who richly deserve it.

BJP's comeuppance in Karnataka

    A new chief minister has been sworn into office in Karnataka after Mr. B. S. Yeddyurappa resigned under the cloud of corruption charges. For a relatively forward looking state in India, Karnataka has had highly unstable state governments for more than three decades now. The job of Chief Minister of the state has changed hands 17 times in 33 years.Here is a listing of all those who have held the job:

1	D. Devaraj Urs	28 February 1978	7 January 1980	Indian National Congress
2	R. Gundu Rao	12 January 1980	6 January 1983	Indian National Congress
3	Ramakrishna Hegde	10 January 1983	29 December 1984	Janata Party
4	Ramakrishna Hegde	8 March 1985	13 February 1986	Janata Party
5	Ramakrishna Hegde	16 February 1986	10 August 1988	Janata Party
6	S. R. Bommai	13 August 1988	21 April 1989	Janata Party
	President's rule	21 April 1989	30 November 1989
7	Veerendra Patil	30 November 1989	10 October 1990	Indian National Congress
8	S.Bangarappa	17 October 1990	19 November 1992	Indian National Congress
9	M. Veerappa Moily	19 November 1992	11 December 1994	Indian National Congress
10	H.D. Deve Gowda	11 December 1994	31 May 1996	Janata Dal
11	J. H. Patel	31 May 1996	7 October 1999	Janata Dal
12	S. M. Krishna	11 October 1999	28 May 2004	Indian National Congress
13	Dharam Singh	28 May 2004	28 January 2006	Indian National Congress
14	H. D. Kumaraswamy	3 February 2006	8 October 2007	Janata Dal (Secular)
	President's rule	9 October 2007	11 November 2007
15	B. S. Yeddyurappa	12 November 2007	19 November 2007	Bharatiya Janata Party
	President's rule	20 November 2007	27 May 2008
16	B. S. Yeddyurappa	28 May 2008	31 July 2011	Bharatiya Janata Party
17	D. V. Sadananda Gowda	03 August 2011	Till date	Bharatiya Janata Party

                                                        Source : wikipedia

    A quick recap of the events in the last seven years is warranted here. Until the assembly elections of 2004 BJP was a marginal player in the state politics of Karnataka. With a hung assembly verdict in the 2004 elections, the party got it's opening in the state. They however, were thwarted by a shaky coalition between Congress and JD(S) which assumed power. This alliance collapsed after H.D. Kumarasway(HDK) engineered a coup by strking an alliance with BJP in early 2006. The apparent agreement was to share the Chief Minister's post for 20 months each for the rest of the duration of the assembly. Having been in power for 20 months, when JD(S) was unwilling to make way for a member of BJP to become the chief minister, the government eventually collapsed .There was president's rule for about six months.

    Fresh elections were held once again in 2008. This time around the fed up electorate seemed to be inclined to give BJP a clean chance at governing the state. Although no party got the requisite seats for an absolute majority , BJP managed to cobble together enough numbers to present a stable coalition. This was seen by optimists as a start of a fresh new chapter. Having suffered unstable governments in the previous four years, many thought this would bring much needed stability to the state. And since BJP had come to power in a southern state for the first time, many thought they would go the extra mile to provide good governance and establish a solid base.
  
    But it wasn't meant to be. Now just after three years , there is another chief minister. Misigivings between various groups within the ranks of BJP were reported by the media during the swearing in ceremony. The new administration will have two more years before the term of this assembly ends. There is little hope of any good coming out of this new dispensation.

    In the last few assembly elections across various states, voters have rewarded improvements in governance with renewed mandates and have punished those that gained notoriety for corruption and poor performance. New elections in Karnataka, when they happen may not be an exception.

Prospects of a slowdown

    As the uproar over corruption scandals continues during the monsoon session of parliament, policymakers would be wise to take a good look at the developed world economies.
  
    After an embarrassing showdown over raising the debt limit,  prospects for the US economy are becoming very uncertain.  With political gridlock continuing till the elections in 2012, chances of new growth boosting measures are close to zero.Any possibility of rapid growth for the US in the next 2 years looks very unlikely now. Meanwhile, in Europe the debt crisis is now threatening to engulf Italy and Spain. 

    There is hardly any encouraging news from the western economies, which are India's biggest export markets.At home, signs of the slowdown are becoming increasingly evident. On the brighter side, western companies may seek to outsource more of their work overseas to countries like India. Commodity prices may decline with a slowdown, helping the government in it's fight to bring down inflation

   Along with efforts to strengthen the safety net,lawmakers should make a big push to kick start investments in Infrastructure. It would contribute handily to growth. Apart from improving overall living conditions it would also provide badly needed employment to the vast masses of people who need it.